🔍 Module 8: Reactive vs Pre-Planned Classifier

🎯 What This Module Does:
This classifier analyzes multiple statistical and temporal signals to determine whether a PLA ADIZ response was:

• REACTIVE: Genuinely triggered by the U.S./Taiwan action (immediate spike, no pre-buildup)
• PRE-PLANNED: Already scheduled, just using event as excuse/justification (delayed, pre-buildup, sustained)
• MIXED: Combination of both (opportunistic timing)

Analysis Method:
We examine 5 signals with statistical weights:

1. Temporal Proximity (30%): How quickly did response occur? (0-2 days = reactive, 9+ days = pre-planned)
2. Pre-Event Buildup (25%): Was ADIZ rising before the event? (rising trend = pre-planning)
3. Magnitude (20%): Is response unusually large? (very large ops need advance planning)
4. Symbolic Timing (15%): Aligned with symbolic dates? (Oct 10, PRC National Day, etc.)
5. Pattern Shape (10%): Sharp spike or sustained plateau? (spike = reactive, plateau = planned exercise)

Example: Pelosi visit (Aug 2022) would likely score as REACTIVE (immediate massive spike, no pre-buildup). Joint Sword exercises around Taiwan inauguration might score PRE-PLANNED (scheduled around symbolic date, sustained operation).