v1.0.2
Early Warning Intelligence

🛩️ Taiwan ADIZ Analysis Dashboard

Detecting the indicators that trigger China's military responses

The Mission: When the U.S. or Taiwan takes an action — selling weapons, sailing ships, passing legislation — how does China respond with military pressure?

This dashboard analyzes 5+ years of PLA ADIZ incursions cross-referenced with geopolitical events to reveal which actions trigger the strongest reactions, how quickly China responds, whether reactions are genuine or pre-planned, and what patterns predict escalation. Like a tripwire, we detect the indicators before they trigger a response.

📊 Visualization & Data Exploration

📰 About GDELT Data

The Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) monitors global news media in over 100 languages, cataloging every political action, statement, and interaction worldwide. Our visualizations use 342,754 GDELT events (2021-2025) where any country acted on Taiwan, revealing global engagement patterns and China's reactions.

Event Codes (1-20): GDELT categorizes actions from cooperation (e.g., Code 05: Diplomatic Cooperation, Code 06: Material Aid) to conflict (e.g., Code 13: Threaten, Code 15: Military Posture, Code 19: Fight). Goldstein Scale (-10 to +10): Measures conflict vs. cooperation intensity—positive scores indicate cooperative actions, negative scores indicate hostile actions.

📚 Learn more about GDELT →

🔍 Analysis Modules

Module 1: Single Event

Analyze ADIZ response around a specific event. See impact metrics, time-to-peak, persistence, and confounders.

MVP Active

Module 2: Event Stack Analyzer

Stack multiple events of the same type to see average ADIZ patterns. Reveals typical response curves you can't see in the regular visualizer.

✅ Active

Module 3: A/B Comparison

Compare two event groups side-by-side. Which triggers stronger reactions: arms vs ships? Offensive vs defensive? Get timing, severity metrics, and AI-like recommendations.

✅ Active

Module 4: Heatmap View

Event-aligned and calendar heatmaps showing intensity patterns over time.

Coming Soon

Module 5: Rhetoric Analyzer

Analyze PRC rhetoric shifts around events using GDELT tone, volume, and key themes correlation with ADIZ.

Coming Soon

Module 6: AI Analyzer

Dual chat interface: Global LLM (Gemini + geopolitical knowledge) and Local RAG (WebLLM analyzing only your dataset). Natural language Q&A about ADIZ spikes.

✅ Active

Module 7: Predictor

Trigger ranking by impact score and what-if simulator to predict ADIZ response to hypothetical events.

Coming Soon

Module 8: Reactive vs Pre-Planned

Classify if PLA response was genuinely triggered or pre-planned using event as excuse. Analyzes 5 signals: timing, pre-buildup, magnitude, symbolic dates, pattern shape.

✅ Active

Module 9: Actions Roundup

Intelligent analysis of top ADIZ spike days. Automatically identifies likely triggers across all event categories with confidence scores. Highlights unexplained reactions for intelligence gap analysis.

✅ Active

ℹ️ About This Dashboard

China Tripwire analyzes Taiwan ADIZ incursions in relation to political, military, and diplomatic events. Like a security tripwire that detects intrusions, this dashboard identifies the geopolitical triggers that precede China's military responses, helping analysts understand cause-and-effect relationships in cross-strait tensions.

📊 Data includes: ADIZ baseline, arms sales, diplomatic events, legislative bills, ship transits, and political/symbolic events from 2020-2025.