🎯 Module 9: Actions Roundup

Intelligent analysis of top ADIZ spike days using causal reasoning and historical pattern matching to distinguish genuine triggers from responses and structural events.

🧠 Causal Logic: This module filters out military exercises (responses, not triggers) and downgrades pre-planned events (holidays, NPC sessions, scheduled speeches) since they're structural/calendrical. It boosts confidence for proven historical patterns like Pelosi → exercises or major arms sales → spike responses.
✅ Valid Triggers: Arms sales (95%), diplomatic visits (95%), Taiwan actions (75%), ship transits (70%), bills (50%)
🚫 Filtered: Military exercises (responses), pre-planned holidays/NPC (-70% confidence)
📚 Historical Patterns: Pelosi (Aug '22) → 100%, McCarthy (Apr '23) → 100%, Lai inauguration → 95%, Trump $11B sale → 90%
🏠 Home 📊 Module 1: Visualizer 📈 Module 2: Category Analyzer 🔄 Module 3: A/B Compare 🤖 Module 8: Event Classifier
Analyzing ADIZ spikes and cross-referencing with all event categories...

📊 Summary Statistics

✅ Top ADIZ Spikes with Likely Triggers

❓ Top Unexplained Reactions INTELLIGENCE GAPS

These significant ADIZ spikes (15+ aircraft) occurred with no clear precursor events in our data (searched up to 21 days before each spike). These may represent: (1) internal PLA scheduling, (2) classified/unreported events, (3) reactive responses to events outside our data coverage, or (4) preemptive shows of force.